Mohammad Zobair Hasan
The year 2021 is being celebrated as the golden jubilee of Bangladesh's independence. The country is widely being lauded for retaining her pace of development in socio-economic and other index across the globe amid the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.But, Bangladesh will have to attain 10pc GDP growth on average annually for next 20 years (2021-2041), if the country wants to emerge as an upper middle-income country on the world stage by 2021 and a developed one by 2041. As a result, the size of the budget will usually be higher than the previous and the growth target shall have to be achieved amid the global pandemic situations.
The economy of the country has been beinginflicted with shrinkage due to the coronavirus fallout since its breakout in March last year. The life and livelihoodof the low-income people has been seriously affected by this pandemic. The earnings of a large group of people have dropped drastically and many are at high risk. To this end, short-term plan must be adopted to tackle the situation by ensuring proper use of domestic resources including GDPs.Hence, the government needs to prepare and implement an efficient and forehanded budget this year.
The present government is going to place the highest national budget for 2020-21 fiscal year in its third term on June 3. The preparation of passing about Tk 6,00,000 core budget is almost over witha high and bold revenue collection target. This year’s budget has been termed as ‘the budget for the poor’.
This budget will emit ray of light for the poor, who have been pushed below the poverty line due to the global outbreak of the pandemic. The GDP growth projection is being lowered for the next fiscal year. Though there prevails an uncertainty about the revenue collection amid the economic fallout due to the coronavirus pandemic, the target of GDP growth will be set around 6-7pc.
As the budget is an estimation of revenue and expenses of the government for a year as well as our government determines the expenses first and set the revenue sources later, therefore, revised budget is generally considered as the actual budget. The government especially the local government has been preparing the budget focusing on increasing the allocation for social security net and various poverty alleviation programmes.
The budget is also an estimated plan of the political philosophy implementation of a government. Therefore, there raises a question of implementing the budget participatory for people from all walks of life and making it tangible for all. In the present time, the discussion of the budget and its analysis are not limited among the economists alone. Now people from various professions are opening discussion on the budget. More mass awareness is being increased day by day. Discussions are arranged with the participation of people in every Union Parishad (UP) office in the months of April-May and plans are adopted to introduce a people oriented budget.
The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector draws a special attention in the budget planning this year. The significance of the sector has increased much more than the previous for the present context of the coronavirus situation. But according to JMP sources, only 47.8 pc people of the country has access to safe water. It’s now a matter of regret for us when the country is about to achieve the middle-income country status. Therefore, sufficient allocation for safe water is a must. More Budget need to be allocated in areas like remote villages, islands, hilly regions and costal districts with backward people to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Pre-budged discussions, organised to make the budget participatory, haven’t been up to the marklike the previous year due to the outbreak of the pandemic.
Like national budgets, pre-budget discussions were held in local level to finalise the budget for Union Parishad for the fiscal year of 2021-2020. SDG Nagarik Committee and seven unions under Barguna Sadar upazila arranged pre-budget discussions with the help of DORP-WASH SDG programmes. People from all walks of life including the representatives from the impoverished community participated inthe pre-budget dialogue. Mass expectations for various sectors including the water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)from the budget was argued during the dialogue, arranged through ward-level meetings. The meetings were organized with the presence of limited men and women maintaining social distance and following health guidelines due to coronavirus pandemic.
WASH SDG Nagarik Committee has proposed around 5 crore takaBudget with a view to setting up hygienic toilets, public toilets, deep tube-wells and Pond sand filter, repairing tube-wells and providing sanitary napkins and ensuring safe toilet school for girls to improve the living standard of the backward people considering the problems of marginalized and impoverished in that areas. Demands, raised from the ward level meetings on WASH sector, have been placed in the dialogue with the Union Parishad. During pre-budget discussion with 7 Unions and 2 Municipalities in south coastal regions of Bangladesh an estimated need based budget has been demanded which is Tk6,80,48,000 and it revealed Tk 840 percapita.
It was promised that modern civic amenities would be made available in every villagewhen Awami League-led government announced its election manifesto during the last national elections. Villages were prioritized as main focal point of development and prosperity. Therefore, we are looking forward to the implementation of this political promises of the government in the budget of 2021-22 fiscal. If an inclusive and efficient budget is placed on June 3, this will not only lower the income inequality, but also improve the living standards of the poor. Thus, it will be a budget for the poor. A large amount of the budget is allocated for the annual development programme (ADP). And in the Eighth Five Year Plan (8FYP), the allocation for the ADP was estimated at Tk 2,22,000 crore for the upcoming fiscal year.
The budget deficit for the upcoming expansionary fiscal policy will be fixed more than 6 percent of the GDP. Therefore, the figure of the budget deficit may soar to 2,00,000 crore Tk, which will be the highest in the country’s history. Special attention has to be paid how the budget deficit can be lowered in the proposed ‘big’ budget. At the same time, transparency and accountability need to be ensured to alleviate poverty. Bangladesh scored 36 point out of 41 in terms of transparency in budget formulation at the 2019 index prepared by International Budget Programme (IBP).
In the recent years, voice has been raised emphasizing the formulation of an inclusive budget through analyzing the living standard of the backward people of the society and it is rational and expected. We hope that sufficient importance will be given in this issue while the upcoming budget 2021-22 is going to be placed before the parliament. Besides, recommendations, made by people, will also be reviewedand discussed thoroughly in in the budget discussion. Thus a ‘people friendly’ budget will be placed. We also demand allocations be made according to the investment strategy of the planning commission to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The issue has been introduced in various laws, principles and strategies of the government. Therefore, we expect sufficient allocations in order to develop the WASH conditions of the backward people. Besides, public and private agencies, public representatives and people from all walks of live have to work shoulder to shoulder in this regard. To achieve the SDGs, we have to carry on an all-out effort. And it will only be possible when the budget isinclusive and people oriented. Government must ensure this as the pandemic scratches the backward people most with its claw.
Mohammad Zobair Hasan is Director (Research), DORP & SWA South Asian CSO Representative
