Virus deaths, infections unbridled

Covid-19 deaths and infections are on the rise in the country with the number of people infected increasing every week.
Experts say Bangladesh has reached the last stage of the coronavirus infection, called the fourth level, while adding, the only way to bring the situation under control, is staying at home, building a preventive system, and increasing testing.

The World Health Organization divides the countries of the world into four levels based on coronavirus infections and its prevalence. Level-1 falls when no one is detected. If identification of persons from abroad and the transmission occur one after another, it is called Level-2. If the infection is restricted to certain areas, it is Level-3. And Level-4 is when infection spreads widely among the population.

Earlier, eight experts made a forecast to the government that there could be a 'peak' of the infection between May 16 and 18. Up to this time, the number of patients may grow almost every day. The ‘peak’ situation may remain for quite some time. The risk of infection may decrease in the later part of the month.

On March 8, three people were identified with Covid-19 virus in the country for the first time. The three were infected till March 14. The following week, the number of infected people rose to 24. In the third week, 24 more people were infected. By the end of the fourth week, a total of 70 people had been infected. 22 people were infected that week. Only in the fourth week, people were less infected than in the previous week.

However, from the following week, the infection began to grow in large numbers. At that time the number of sample tests was also increased. 412 people were identified in the fifth week. At the end of the sixth week, the total number of infected people increased to 2,144. Of these, 1,662 were identified in the sixth week. 2,854 people in the seventh week. 3,792 people in the eighth week and 4,980 in the ninth week.

The ninth week of the infection ended last Saturday. At the end of the ninth week, a total of 13,060 people were infected in the country.

Up to Wednesday, a total of 17,822 people had been infected in Bangladesh. The total death toll reached 269. The number of infected people on Tuesday was 969 and reached 1,162 on Wednesday.

Covid-19 is currently being tested in 41 institutions in the country having the capacity to test at least 10,000 samples per day. But so far, a maximum of 7,900 samples have been tested.

Analysts say that although the number of infections has increased, there are still fewer tests than needed. At first it was thought that 50,000 sample tests would be conducted every day. At least 20,000 tests needed to be done there. If the number of sample tests does not increase, the actual situation will not be understood. As a result it will be difficult to take the right steps.

Virologist, Professor Nazrul Islam told Bangladesh Post “the number of infected on Wednesday increased 0.4 percent as compared to that on Tuesday. The number of infected is also showing higher due to the increase in sample collection. Considering the overall situation, it can be said that we are now in the fourth stage of infection.”

“The rate of infection is increasing day by day and a lot of time and opportunity for prevention has been wasted. I think if we had continued the lockdown properly, our situation would have improved. Now even if there is a lockdown, it is loose. If this condition continues, the infection will increase,” he continued.

He also said “sixty five percent of the total infected people live in Dhaka city. So, if more attention was given to Dhaka, it would be much easier to control this virus. However, 87 percent infected people live in Dhaka city and its adjoining Narayanganj, Gazipur and Savar. If we paid special attention to these places, it would not be difficult to control the countrywide situation.”

Our time is not over as yet. We can still control the transmission of this virus if we want to. For this, everyone including the government has to be more sincere. Prevention of the virus will now depend entirely on the personal efforts of the people. He also said that strict lockdowns in the area could be used to prevent the spread of the infection.

Bangladesh is now ranked 34th in the world and the first in Asia in terms of the number of cases of coronavirus. Indonesia and the Philippines topped Asia's transition index in early May. A week ago, Pakistan overtook the East Asian countries and reached the top. Then two days ago, India topped the infection rate index. Bangladesh topped the infection index on Monday, surpassing the largest country in South Asia.

The first case of infection in India was reported on January 30. By the end of the ninth week of infection, a total of 2,902 people had been infected in the country. 50 people died. Until then, the death rate in India was 1.72 percent. Now it has increased to 3.35 percent. At the same time, that is, at the end of the ninth week, 13 thousand 770 were infected in Bangladesh. Of these, 214 people died.

More than 16 lakh people have been tested in India so far. The detection (positive) rate is 3.91 percent. And in Bangladesh, a total of below 1.5 lakh samples have been tested. The detection rate of positive samples is more than 12 percent.

The first death in the country was announced on March 18. The death toll rose to 100 on the 44th day of infection detection. And it took only 18 days to cross 200.

Ninety eight percent of the total infections were detected in the second month of infection. The whole period was during a public holiday, and practically in a lockdown situation. The garment factory was reopened on April 26. From the same day, shops were allowed to open. Lockdowns in different districts have also become loose, which is creating the risk of further infection.

Experts say the breakdown has put thousands of people at risk of infection. There is no ability to diagnose and treat the condition if the infection is widespread in the country.

According to public health expert analysis, if the situation is very bad, a maximum of 65,000 people could be infected in a single day and one-fifth of them may need to be hospitalized. If this happens, then 12 to 13 thousand people may have to be hospitalized.

However, there are only 1200 ICUs in public and private hospitals across the country. So, in this situation most of the people will not get proper treatment.