A recent analysis by NAFSA and research firm JB International warns that the United States could see a 30–40% drop in new international student enrolments this fall due to severe visa processing delays. This projected decline represents a potential loss of 150,000 students and an estimated economic impact of $7 billion, along with over 60,000 jobs affected nationwide.
The analysis cites four major reasons behind the decline: the suspension of student visa interviews from May 27 to June 18, limited visa appointment availability after resumption, slower visa issuance in early 2025, and recent travel bans affecting several student-sending countries. Data shows a 12% drop in F-1 visa issuances between January and April 2025 compared to last year, and a 22% drop in May alone. June could see as much as an 80–90% decline.
“This is one of the most significant drops in international enrolment in recent times,” said NAFSA CEO Dr. Fanta Aw. “International students drive innovation and strengthen the US academic and research landscape. We cannot afford to close our doors to them.”
NAFSA is now urging the US State Department to prioritize student visa processing and exempt F-1, M-1, and J-1 visa applicants from current travel restrictions, while continuing essential background checks.
A bipartisan group of 15 Members of Congress has also voiced concern, writing to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 24. They highlighted issues especially affecting Indian students and asked for urgent action to reduce visa backlogs.
Experts warn that without immediate intervention, the US may lose its global edge as a top study destination. “The costs are real, and the time to act is now,” said Dr. Aw. “This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about our values and future.”
