Chris Doyle
For months beforehand, last week’s local elections in Britain were depicted as a litmus test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government, which is not even two years old. The verdict on who the voters do want was indeterminate, but on who they do not want it was crystal clear. This was a vote against Starmer, who is seen less as a leader and more as a manager, neither great at strategy nor tactics.
Disposing of the manager has been a theme of British politics recently — there have been six prime ministers in the last decade. These local elections highlighted the malaise.
One winner was “no overall control.” Many councils no longer have a single party running them. Voters were split. While they left Labour in droves, with the party losing nearly 1,500 seats, there was no obvious alternative. It was a vote against the two-party system that has dominated the country for a century. The Conservatives also fared poorly. As with many European countries, the traditional parties are seen as flailing. The Conservatives and Labour only got about 34 percent of the vote between them.
Many pointed to a shift in support for the far-right Reform UK party under Nigel Farage. But the reality was not much of a surge. The vote share for Reform was down on last year’s elections at only just over a quarter. Is the appeal wearing off?
Reform remains a Farage cult. Without him, it would fall apart. He has tonnes of charisma but voters are beginning to pick up on the other baggage. It has been revealed that Farage received a “gift” of £5 million ($6.8 million) from a cryptocurrency billionaire living in Thailand just before he decided to stand at the 2024 general election. Farage maintains this was just a personal gift — a story that is hardly likely to convince voters. His sterner critics see Reform as a foreign influence project with worrying ties to Russia. It is a party that is ardently anti-immigrant and even more hostile to Muslims than the Conservative Party.
Nevertheless, Reform looks like it is currently dominating the right of British politics. Much of the Tory vote went to Reform as it lost more than 400 councilors in England alone. Reform beat its rivals on the right in England, Scotland and Wales. The Conservatives’ national vote share was level with Labour but below even the Greens.
Brexit remains a factor. Even though support for returning to the EU — or at least getting closer — has grown, Reform still does well in the anti-EU areas that voted for Brexit. While Starmer has committed to closer ties, he has again ruled out rejoining the European bloc.
The Greens have emerged as the insurgent force on the left, picking up disgruntled former Labour voters. You could tell that Labour was worried about the Green Party challenge by its online onslaught against its leader, Zack Polanski. Palestine was a factor here. The failure of the Labour leadership to speak out against the genocide in Gaza and act was a factor in many dropping the party. Polanski’s views are ardently pro-Palestinian.
How does Starmer respond? He insists he wishes to be in power for a decade, surely a scenario that can be ruled out. Any reset will have to be drastic, tapping into a hitherto hidden bold streak in his character. His options are limited, not least due to the economy, the impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the commitment to boost defense spending.
The early moves hardly impressed. Starmer appointed former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former Deputy Leader Harriet Harman to advisory roles. Turning back the clock to figures of the past does not smack of courageous leaps forward. It was not an embrace of the dramatic change voters crave. Neither Brown nor Harman were picked for their fresh ideas — it was more a sign of steady as she goes, the polar opposite of the message from the polls.
A leadership challenge is possible. Many within Labour favor Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham but he is not in the House of Commons. One former Minister has announced she will try to get the required number of MPs to challenge Starmer.
A further scenario is that Cabinet members insist Starmer does what Tony Blair did: announce his retirement date and permit a well-organized transition.
Local elections do not always translate into general election success. Typically, they are a protest vote, a barometer of public mood. This was neither a mass vote for Reform nor for the Greens, but a huge vote against Starmer. It was also a huge attack on the establishment.
Britain has been sucked into a dangerous vortex of leadership change and instability. Prime ministers’ job security now seems to be as perilous as that of football managers. Voters, like fans, crave instant satisfaction. Leaders must deliver quick results and in a fashion that is enjoyable. The result is that leaders are always looking over their shoulders at rivals and lack the confidence to be bold and think for the long term. It all ends up with too many own goals and red cards.
Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech
