In the previous two cycles of the ICC World Test Championship, Bangladesh languished at the bottom. However, this time around, they are aiming for a much-improved performance. Despite failing to secure a win in the first cycle, Bangladesh managed to clinch one victory in the second. Under the captaincy of Najmul Hossain Shanto, the team has shown significant promise, much to the delight of their fans. Their latest triumph saw them defeat Pakistan 2-0 in an away series.
This victory has significantly boosted Bangladesh's chances of reaching the Test Championship final. According to the points percentage system, Bangladesh currently sits in fourth place. Although they have earned 36 points from three wins, they have been docked 3 points due to a slow over-rate penalty.
Out of a possible 72 points, Bangladesh has accumulated 33 points. With a points percentage of 45.83, Chandika Hathurusingha's squad is just behind India, Australia, and New Zealand. India leads the current cycle with a points percentage of 68.52, followed by Australia with 62.50. These two teams are set to clash in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia.
Bangladesh has six more Tests remaining in the ICC Test Championship. They are scheduled to play a two-Test series at home against South Africa. Although this series is listed in the ICC's Future Tours Programme, the Bangladesh Cricket Board has yet to announce the schedule. Additionally, there is a two-Test series against India in September and another two-Test series against the West Indies in November.
Statistical analysis suggests that Bangladesh needs to win at least five of their next six Tests to stay in contention. Avoiding slow over-rate penalties, these five wins would add 60 points to their tally, bringing their total to 93 points. With 93 points out of a possible 144, Bangladesh's points percentage would be 64.58.
Historical data indicates that with such a percentage, Bangladesh could potentially qualify for the Test Championship final. However, the probability stands at only 10%. India has the highest chance at 80%, with ten matches remaining. If Rohit Sharma's team wins at least five of these matches, they will secure a spot in the final.
Australia has a 70% chance, needing at least four wins from their next seven matches. New Zealand follows, requiring six wins from eight matches to reach the final. Sri Lanka has a 25% chance, needing to win six out of nine matches to play in the final at Lord's.
