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Thailand’s opposition parties start alliance talks

Voters reject military rule


Bangladeshpost
Published : 16 May 2023 01:56 AM

Thailand’s opposition parties have secured by far the largest number of votes in national elections, delivering a damning verdict to the military-backed government that has ruled the country for nearly a decade.

Move Forward, a progressive opposition party popular with young Thais that surpassed expectations by winning the most votes and seats, said on Monday that it was ready to form a government. Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, told media he had invited Pheu Thai, the party associated with the exiled former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and four other opposition parties to form an alliance.

“I am Pita Limjaroenrat, the next prime minister of Thailand,” he told reporters in Bangkok, vowing to be a “prime minister for all”.

Pheu Thai later confirmed it had agreed to Pita’s proposal to form an opposition coalition. For any of the opposition parties to take power they need to form a coalition that has numbers strong enough to pass through a system that is weighed in favour of the military-backed candidates.

A future prime minister will be voted on not just by the 500-seat house of representatives, whose membership is be dictated by the election results, but also by the senate, whose 250 members were appointed by the military after the last coup. It is unclear if senators’ votes will reflect the will of the people, especially given Move Forward’s ambition to reform Thailand’s lèse-majesté law.

Pita Limjaroenrat warned of a “hefty price” to pay if there was interference in the election outcome that would lead to the formation of a minority government.

The Election Commission chair, Ittiporn Boonprakon, said the Move Forward party had secured 151 of 500 available seats, while Pheu Thai had 141 seats. The numbers would need to be confirmed before they could be pronounced as official, which would happen within 60 days.

He said voter turnout was the highest recorded, 75.22%.

Prayut Chan-ocha, a former army chief who first came to power in a coup in 2014, and who had run a staunchly nationalist campaign, was trailing far behind with 36 seats. However, this is sufficient for him to still be in the running for prime minister, in the event he can cobble together a coalition.

Move Forward, which wants to reform Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law, a taboo topic, and has taken a strong stance in calling for military reform, shocked even some of its own supporters by outperforming expectations on Sunday. Throughout the national count, it was neck-and-neck with Pheu Thai, a heavyweight opposition party that had been aiming to win by a landslide.

Over the past two decades, parties linked to the Shinawatra family have repeatedly proved unbeatable at the ballot box, winning the most seats in every election since 2001.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, described the results as “staggering” and “historic”. Pheu Thai had campaigned using its old approach of populist policies he said, but added: “Move Forward takes the game to the next level with institutional reform. That’s the new battleground in Thai politics.”

This was the first election in which the lèse-majesté law was openly discussed by candidates – a change brought about by the 2020 youth-led mass protests where activists risked jail to call for the influence and wealth of the monarchy to be curbed.

Move Forward, whose own candidates have been charged under the law, is the only party to make a clear commitment to reforming it. Pheu Thai said the matter should be discussed in parliament but is strongly opposed to the law being scrapped, while Conservative parties all fiercely oppose any change.

Pita, a 42-year-old former executive of a ride-hailing app, told reporters: “The sentiment of the era has changed and it’s right. And today it’s a new day and hopefully it’s full of bright sunshine of hope going forward.”

A joint session of the House of Representatives will be held with the Senate in July to select the new prime minister.

It is unclear how senators will vote. Somchai Sawangkarn told Reuters, that any candidate “must be honest and not cause problems in the country. Hitler was elected in a majority but led the country to world war … If there is a possibility of creating division in the country, I will not vote for them.”

Opposition candidates could also face court cases that could prevent them from staying in power. Move Forward is the reincarnation of Future Forward, an equally outspoken party that performed well in the 2019 election and was closed down by the constitutional court the following year, after it was accused of breaking funding rules. Last week, a complaint was filed against Pita, claiming he owns undeclared shares in a media company. He has denied any wrongdoing. Complaints have also been filed against Pheu Thai.

On Sunday, Prayuth slipped away quietly from his United Thai Nation party headquarters, where there were few supporters to be seen. “I hope the country will be peaceful and prosper,” Prayuth told reporters. “I respect democracy and the election. Thank you.”

Thai voters have delivered a stunning verdict in favour of an opposition party that is calling for radical reform of the country's institutions.

Early results show Move Forward exceeding every prediction to win 151 of the 500 seats in the lower house.

It's now 10 seats ahead of what was the frontrunner, Pheu Thai, led by ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter.

Analysts are calling this a political earthquake that represents a significant shift in public opinion.

It is also a clear repudiation of the two military-aligned parties of the current government, and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a coup that ousted an elected government in 2014. The governing coalition won only 15% of the seats.

"We didn't leave any stones unturned," Move Forward's 42-year-old leader Pita Limjaroenrat told the BBC. "People have had enough in the last decade. Now, it's a new day."

Pheu Thai, the second-largest party, has said it has agreed to join Move Forward and four smaller opposition parties, giving them a coalition of more than 60% of seats in the new parliament.

However, that still isn't enough to outvote the 250-strong unelected senate, which was appointed by Mr Prayuth, and are allowed to join the vote in parliament for the next administration. They are likely to object to Move Forward's progressive agenda, in particular its pledge to amend the controversial lese majeste law.

In the political negotiations which lie ahead, many Thais fear the military and its backers may yet try to block the winning parties from taking office. A military coup is unlikely, but yet another court ruling to disqualify Move Forward on a technicality, as happened to its predecessor Future Forward in 2020, is possible.

The other question is how well Move Forward and Pheu Thai, whose relations in the last parliament were sometimes fractious, can work together. Mr Pita, a Harvard University graduate and a skilled parliamentarian, is still untested in the more ruthless art of stitching together and sustaining a coalition.

But that uncertainty doesn't change the fact that the people of Thailand woke up to a changed political landscape this morning.

"The majority of votes reflect the need to escape from the 'Prayuth regime', and the yearning for change," says Prajak Kongkirati, a political scientist from Thammasat University. "It shows that people believe in the Move Forward demand for change - many more people than predicted."

Thai social media has been awash with victory messages from Move Forward supporters, who call themselves "organic canvassers", and describe the party's win as a "wind of change" and the "dawn of a new era."

Mr Pita tweeted that he was "ready" to become the country's 30th prime minister. "We have the same dreams and hopes. And together we believe that our beloved Thailand can be better, and changes are possible if we start working on them today," he wrote.

"This election really tells you that only four years have passed, but the people's thinking has changed a lot, both the establishment and the pro-democracy camps," a tweet read, adding that, "democracy cannot be taken for granted".

It would have once been unthinkable that Move Forward, a party calling for wholesale changes to Thailand's bureaucracy, its economy, the role of the military, and even the laws protecting the monarchy, could win more seats and votes than any of its rivals.

It's no coincidence that these were the same issues that spurred a months-long student-led protest movement in 2020. Some of Move Forward's candidates had been leaders in the movement. And, like the 2020 protests, young and passionate voters, many of them followers of Move Forward, played a big role in the election result.

The mood in favour of the young party was hard to miss in the weeks leading up to the election. A new wave of memes exploded on Thai social media - people taking big steps or leaps in an obvious nod to Move Forward's Thai name.

And that played out in real life at voting booths on Sunday as people took exaggerated, giant steps to show their support. It was the only way to indicate which way they were leaning because election rules don't allow voters to declare their preferences openly. Others wore bright orange shirts, flip flops and sneakers - the party's chosen colour for campaigning.

Move Forward's candidates had fewer resources than their rivals, and had to rely on social media, and sometimes old technology like bicycles, to get their message across. It helped that their vision seemed much clearer than other parties.

Move Forward ruled out any coalition with parties associated with the 2014 military coup, a position on which its reformist rival Pheu Thai was initially evasive. The party was also fresh and bold, and in the last parliament, was known for taking principled positions.

It also benefitted from what appears to be a widespread public appetite for change. Voters under 26 years are not a large bloc in ageing Thailand - they make up just 14% of the 52-million electorate - but they worked hard to persuade older voters to back Move Forward to offer their generation a better future.

The most immediate question is whether, despite the mandate for change, the two reformist parties are allowed to form a government.

Mr Pita was optimistic while addressing the media on Monday. "With the consensus that came out of the election, it will be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who is thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government... it is quite far-fetched for now," he said.

"And I think the people of Thailand will not allow that to happen."