Nahiyan, a college student residing my next door at Malibagh area in the capital city didn’t attend his classes over the last seven days as his grandmother did not allow him to leave home. She thought her grandson should stay home to remain safe from Corona virus epidemic which has hit China, the second largest economy of the world and marching ahead to invade the whole world. Most people in Chinese cities are not coming outside their homes as a preventive measure to remain safe from the attack of Coronavirus. It’s a new battle against mankind that has no gun powder but must be won.
Like Nahiyan’s grandmother, many people in Bangladesh are scared about the pandemic. Coronavirus has already hit more than 100 countries across the globe and killed at least 3,600 people till Saturday, according to World Health Organization (WHO). In a video that was recently published on social media, Moksedul Momin, a Bangladeshi student living in China said he cannot get out of his room as per Chinese government directives. Fears are mounting over the rise of coronavirus as this unstoppable virus has hit many people outside mainland China with no clear link to China, where the virus was first detected in late December, and called for urgent funding to support countries with weaker health systems.
A big number of Bangladeshi students and workers are struggling in China, Italy, Japan and other countries to survive this new battle. A protracted and wider coronavirus outbreak will eventually affect global value chains, financial markets, flow of capital, and price levels, affecting both firms and households, and economic transformation as a whole. We all are still dropping the ball in places where it was most severe and have to wait at least 18 months to have an effective antivirus to combat coronavirus. Bangladesh must wake up and consider this enemy virus as the number one public enemy.
For Bangladesh, coronavirus is a big test for its governance system.
We all are still dropping the ball in places where
it was most severe and have to wait at least 18 months
to have an effective antivirus to combat coronavirus.
Bangladesh must wake up and consider
this virus as the number one public enemy.
The Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) on Saturday ranged the alarming bell warning that the novel coronavirus might enter Bangladesh anytime via travelers coming from affected countries. Although none has so far been detected with coronavirus i, the high risk is that Bangladesh has a long 4,156-kilometre-long (2,582 mi) international border with India, the fifth-longest land border in the world. A number of markets have been built in 14 boarder points where many people cross boarder without any medical screening, which may allow Coronavirus to invade Bangladesh’s territory.
Meanwhile, Pakistan and Nepal have confirmed coronavirus cases while India has kept over 100 people under observation following screening for a possible exposure to coronavirus. At least 31 people, including 16 Italian nationals, infected with COVID-19 as India scrambles to contain its spread. Bangladesh has also kept suspicious people under its close observations. But the measure is preventive and inadequate. An investigative report recently broadcasted in a television media shows the measures taken in border check points are not adequate to check properly virus affected people. In some check points, doctors are using thermometer as the devices given to check temperature are ineffective.
The virus may hit Bangladesh anytime if we fail to prevent its invasion. So, business people are worried over the economic growth in 2020 and beyond. The reason for such concern is obvious. Trading is almost going to be stagnant, buyers from the US and the EU are not travelling to Asian countries, including Bangladesh as international airlines are suspending or curtailing their flights to and from China, following a sharp fall in number of passengers. Former lead economist at the World Bank Dr Zahid Hussain has already warned that the impact on the Bangladesh's garment sector could become severe in case of a lingering coronavirus crisis.
Like Mr. Hussain, most economists see the new epidemic could hit the Bangladesh economy, which has been progressing fast since the last decade, thanks to impressive performance of its manufacturing units mostly dependent on Chinese raw material. More than 40 per cent of Bangladesh textile and textile-related goods come from China and nearly 30 per cent machinery comes from there. Clothing factories normally have very small inventories. If the outbreak continues for a month or so, it might impact the country's trade and economy in a negative way. Any critical situation in the Corcnavirus-affected Chinese cities might drag down supply of raw materials from there, and thus affect Bangladesh's export sectors that are struggling in recent months.
Economists warn that due to impact of this epidemic low- and middle- income countries like Bangladesh would lose $4 billion worth of goods exports and $0.6 billion of tourism receipts. If oil prices fall by 5% amidst lower global demand following the outbreak, sub-Saharan African countries would face a $3 billion cut on its mineral fuel export revenues. If the virus continues to spread and Chinese activity remains deeply disrupted for months, a contraction of the global economy is not impossible, particularly as central banks have little effective monetary ammunition for emergencies. Many see Chinese banks will take a hit from a rise in bad loans as a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus, and international banks need to relook at the financing of supply chains.The indirect economic impact of the coronavirus on global economic sentiment is already reflected in falling prices of oil (by 20%) and copper (by 7%) since the outbreak.
The UK based think tank Overseas Development Institute(ODI) has already warned that the coronavirus outbreak will have major impacts on the poorest economies, even if they do not have confirmed cases. Examining the transmission channels and identifying individual countries that are most vulnerable to the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, ODI has prepared a vulnerability index that shows that the top countries at risk are Sri Lanka, Viet Nam, and the Philippines. Sub-Saharan Africa also could lose up to $4 billion worth of exports as the outbreak dampens Chinese and global demand. The index didn’t mention whether Bangladeshis at risk or not. The missing point is Bangladesh runs risk of a possible coronavirus outbreak due to lack of its preparedness and dense population.
Dense population has made the Bangladesh vulnerable to an outbreak of the new virus if any infected person or animal enters the country. As animals don't have borders, so no one will be able to stop an infected animal from crossing the border with India. Now the date juice season is under way. The virus can transmit through bats drinking date juice. The most concern is that Bangladesh lacks facility to rapidly detect and deal with any coronavirus cases that might enter its borders. The government should check all points of entry and a strong consensus among people of all walks of lives is urgent to combat the virus attack. The government should deploy necessary medical equipment in all check points and cities to identify patients immediately.
The Health Ministry needs to implement a range of health-related policies and information campaigns to contain the spread of the virus. Residents also have a role to play. The media is spreading news to aware people, but education about prevention should reach at remote areas. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce must examine the potential economic fall-out in near future. While China is a major trading partner and creditor to Bangladesh, the coronavirus outbreak reminds us of the importance of diversifying export partners and funding sources beyond China. Local apparel manufacturers should look for alternative raw materials suppliers like India and Pakistan for offsetting the China effects.
The coronavirus is spreading at a breakneck speed and it is important to put all the necessary resources into halting it. Time is not on our side. Close monitoring and prevention are the keys. Measures should be rapid, strong and effective. Inefficiency at any point may trigger massive disaster. Building a national consensus is urgent to combat coronavirus. The government should employ more doctors with more screening equipment in all check points. Citizens should work together with doctors and other officials to fight the deadly corona virus.
Faruk Ahmed is a senior financial journalist and Chairman of Bangladesh Journalists’ Foundation For Consumers’ & Investors (BJFCI). He can be reached at dhakamoney@yahoo.com).
