Pallab Bhattacharya
Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has called an emergency meeting of leaders of her party on Saturday following the stunning performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the parliamentary polls in the state. And that could be the start of a fresh struggle for Mamata who now has to brace for stepped-up onslaught from the Bharatiya Janata Party.
"The results came as a rude shock for all of us. We couldn't anticipate such a mandate against us ... We need to rectify the mistakes and reach out to the masses before it is too late," A Trinamool Congress leader said. What came as a surprise to all was the extent and sweep of the BJP’s advance in West Bengal. The state witnessed a saffron surge on Thursday as the BJP inflicted a major blow to Trinamool Congress by winning 18 of the 42 parliamentary seats in the state, up from just two in 2014.
The party’s vote share in West Bengal has gone up from around 17 per cent in 2014 parliamentary elections to 40.25 per cent this year. The Trinamool Congress has won 22 seats in the recent polls, down from 34 in 2014. The Trinamool Congress’ vote share also came down to 43.28 per cent this time from over50 per cent five years ago. In the northern part of Bengal, the BJP won seven of the eight parliamentary seats. The most interesting feature of the BJP’s performance in Bengal is that itr won most of its seats in predominantly rural areas. Mind you, the party failed to win a single of the three seats in Kolkata
The four-party Left Front, that ruled West Bengal for 34 years till 2011, could not manage even one seat and got only 7.8 per cent votes with its candidates losing deposits in all seats but one. The Congress bagged two seats down from four last time and has won a vote share of 5.61 per cent. Another major fall-out of the BJP’s extraordinary performance in this year’s elections is that it has dashed to Mamata’s efforts to be a key figure in the so-called pan-India anti-BJP alliance. In fact, henceforth Mamata, who had organized a mega rally in Kolkata of 21 anti-BJP parties in January this year, is unlikely to have much stake in national politics as she would now have to spend more time in protecting her own political turf from further erosion.
Mamata has a number of reasons to worry in the coming months. First, the BJP, buoyed by its show in West Bengal, is all set to step up further its offensive against the Mamata government and may be looking at fresh assembly polls in the state by this year-end instead of 2021 when the elections are due. Secondly, there is the possibility of fresh defections from the Trinamool Congress. In fact, Modi, had at an election rally in West Bengal said that 40 Trinamool legislators were in touch with the BJP. This number, if BJP sources are to be believed, could up after the recent polls. There are reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may induct four BJP lawmakers from West Bengal into his new ministry keeping in mind the next assembly elections.
The BJP is understood to have benefitted from the sharp decline of the Left parties whose vote share has come down from29 per cent in 2014 parliamentary election to approximately seven percent this time. A large chunk of the shift from the Left vote has gone to the BJP. This mostly explains the stupendous rise of the saffron party in Bengal. Facing atrocities by the Trinamool Congress, many Left cadres were believed to have joined the BJP.
Sensing the decline of the Left, the BJP pushed aggressively to capture West Bengal. Scores of Hindu outfits got active at the grassroots level setting up schools and undertaking other welfare activities in rural Bengal. The BJP also deployed RSS activists in the state for months to do the spadework for nmobilizing public opinion in favour of the party. In the run up to the poll, the BJP flagged the issues that struck a chord with the common people like lack of new industries and jobs in the state, intimidation, violence, extortion and other forms of corruption by Trinamool activists and leaders.
The surge of the BJP forced the Trinamool Congress to resort soft Hindutva—from blowing conch shells to “uludhwani” as per Hindu rituals, from invoking Maa Durga to attacking the BJP over income tax notices to clubs organizing Durga puja on huge budgets. Mamata also helped sharpening the religious divide when her party and government objected to chanting of "Jai Shri Ram" slogans by BJP workers, resulting in violent clashes between the workers of the rival parties.
Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah spent a major part of their campaign time in West Bengal addressing 30 rallies between them. Both repeatedly raised the issues of alleged extortion and corruption by Trinamool Congress leaders and extortions and Trinamool Congress’ “appeasement” of the state’s 30 per cent Muslims.