The 27 October general election for Japan’s House of Representatives resulted in a major setback for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)– Komeito coalition. The ruling parties were widely expected to lose seats, but the scale of losses was significantly larger than what observers anticipated before the election.
The LDP’s seats dropped from the pre-election level of 256 to 191, and Komeito’s seats declined from 32 to 24. Even with the support of all six LDP-leaning independent candidates elected, an LDP-led coalition still falls short of the majority line of 233 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives.
The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the largest opposition party, emerged as the main winner, increasing its seats from 98 to 148. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), a centrist party positioned between the LDP and the CDP, quadrupled its seat number to 28. Nippon Ishin no kai (Ishin), a right-wing opposition party, lost seats but remained the second-largest opposition party with 38 seats.
Perhaps the main reason behind the LDP’s seat loss is the political finance scandal that, since 2023, involved dozens of its members of parliament (MPs). Former prime minister Fumio Kishida saw his approval rating drop due to the scandal, leading to his decision not to seek re-election as LDP leader this August.
Shigeru Ishiba, who won the LDP leadership race in September and became prime minister on 1 October, wavered on issues such as the timing of the next election and the handling of LDP incumbents involved in the finance scandal. He backtracked on many policy proposals he advocated during the leadership race and dissolved parliament quickly without holding substantial parliamentary debates, making it unclear what he really intends to do in power. All these factors contributed to the LDP’s poor performance.
During the election campaign, opposition parties focused on the LDP’s finance scandal rather than promoting their own visions or policies. The term ‘Ura-gane’ (dark money), referring to the scandal, was heard continuously throughout the campaign period. In this sense, the success of the CDP and the DPFP owed more to the LDP’s failure than to their own policy appeals. It should be added that the DPFP appealed to working-age voters with economic policies targeted toward them, gaining significant support.
What will happen next? The constitution stipulates that a new parliamentary session must be convened within 30 days. The current cabinet will resign once the parliament is in session, and MPs will vote to choose the next prime minister. To win, a candidate needs to secure a majority of votes from the attending MPs. If no one achieves a majority, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates.
If all MPs vote, 233 is the simple majority required to elect a prime minister. But if many MPs abstain in run-off votes, the next prime minister may not need a full 233 votes to secure the position.
The LDP, Komeito and LDP-leaning independents hold a combined 221 seats. So far, no opposition parties have expressed interest in joining that coalition. Further, it seems unlikely that Komeito would accept either the DPFP or Ishin as a new coalition member. Adding another party to the coalition would mean a relative decrease in Komeito’s power in government. Also, Komeito’s politicians and supporters likely harbour hard feelings toward these parties. A DPFP candidate defeated Komeito’s leader Keiichi Ishii in his district, and Ishin ousted all four Komeito incumbents in Osaka — a city where Komeito had long boasted of its strength.
Is it possible, then, for the LDP to drop Komeito from the coalition and switch to a new partner? A combination of the LDP, Ishin and LDP-leaning independents, for example, would secure a majority with 235 seats. Yet it remains difficult for the LDP to sever its ties with Komeito because a large number of LDP incumbents rely on Komeito supporters’ votes in their districts.
Meanwhile, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2012, has expressed a desire to win the prime ministership when the parliament convenes. Yet this scenario seems unrealistic given the CDP’s 148 seats are much fewer than the LDP-Komeito’s seats.
Perhaps a more likely scenario is a minority cabinet of the LDP and Komeito — only possible with many abstentions in the run-off round of the prime minister selection — with either the DPFP or Ishin providing support on a case-by-case basis. On 30 October, the DPFP’s executive committee decided that its MPs would vote for its own leader Yuichiro Tamaki even in the run-off, which would have the same effect as abstention.
Negotiations among political parties are already underway. Yet everyone will probably have to wait for some time before the composition of Japan’s new cabinet becomes clear.
Ko Maeda is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Texas, where he specialises in Comparative Politics.
East Asia Forum
