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Opinion

On the Ukraine war and where it’s going


Bangladeshpost
Published : 02 Oct 2024 10:19 PM

Grant Inskeep

While the world has understandably been focused on the Israeli-Hamas War in Gaza and its spillover effects across the Middle East, many people have lost interest in the Russo-Ukrainian War that continues in a grueling battle of attrition nearly two and a half years since Moscows full scale invasion. Without going into the multitudes of details regarding the war—discussed at length on here in the ‘Russia-Ukraine’ highlight folder—this is a conflict between the most expansive empire in history (America) and the declining power (Russia) it’s encroaching on. The US tried shoving NATO expansion to Ukraine down Russian throats, well know to be a red line for Moscow, and got the predictable result. Russia, for their part, intervened in Ukraine to secure their interests—primary control of the Black Sea and the resource rich lands in Eastern Ukraine.

While Ukrainian support from the West will continue in the near term, there have been noticeable chinks in the armor of American defenses within the last year. Particularly when US Congress was stalled (more like held up by far right fascists who wanted increased militarization on the southern border, which the neoliberals in Washington were glad to hand over) on Ukraine war aid for several months—leaving the Ukrainians high and dry on the front lines while the Russians advanced—and when the right wing Polish regime stopped sending weapons to Ukraine the latter half of last year before resuming with a new liberal government in charge now. These were only previews of what’s to come the longer this war drags on.

There’s been reports that top officials in Kyiv are privately expressing concern about having to cede territory to the Russians if Trump wins this Fall, with Ukrainian war aid a sore spot for fascists all over the world but especially in the US with Trump and his Republican voter base. All the escalations and increase in American militarism across Ukraine—from sending Ukrainian forces F16’s, modern tanks, cluster munitions and ATACMS to allowing them to target Russian territory with longer range US weapons—is being done because Washington’s support is crucial and it will not be there forever. Without US weapons, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukraine would have been defeated by this point. 

Despite knowing how to defend their homeland and being fierce fighters, they would have ran out of weapons and government funding absent American aid. US assistance also plays a key role in their ability to strike Russia in the Black Sea and Crimea, carrying out key logistical operations, maintaining supply routes, etc. US intelligence has even directly aided Kyiv in taking out top Russian commanders in Ukraine. A fact Moscow won’t simply forget.

But the US Government knows it cannot support Ukraine “as long as it takes” because those orchestrating the war against Russia—via Ukrainian proxies—understand the longer this conflict and the sanctions drag on, the more allies (colonies) in Europe will continue to decrease their aid. 

There’s been reports that top officials in Kyiv are privately expressing 

concern about having to cede territory to the Russians if Trump wins 

this Fall, with Ukrainian war aid a sore spot for fascists all over the

 world but especially in the US with Trump and his Republican voter base

The further Europe slides into recession and deindustrialization, the more the domestic economies will take precedence over supporting Ukraine against Russia. Not to mention the possibility of domestic American politics (i.e. far right fascists) hijacking policy and abandoning Ukraine, much to the chagrin of Pentagon officials and the foreign policy establishment. So I think the US has been trying to get as much lethal support as they possibly can to Ukraine without poking the bear so hard in Moscow that it results in an increased military confrontation. You can thank the Kremlin’s nuclear saber rattling for the fact that though there have been escalations throughout and redlines crossed, they’ve been exercised with a sense of caution. US planners don’t want WWIII in Europe because they need to be ready for the potential great power clash in Asia with the Chinese. If nuclear war happens, it surely won’t be over Ukraine against the Russians.

The primary goal for Washington in Ukraine, in my opinion, is to prolong the conflict long enough that the sanctions really start hurting the Russian economy while not allowing the conflict to spill beyond Ukraine or for American troops to become involved directly. They want Russia weakened to the point that they’re no longer a threat to their interests in Europe, just as they wanted to help prolong the Soviet-Afghan War long enough to hurt the Soviets to the point that Moscow could no longer threaten American control of the wider Middle East. Which is exactly what they did and the longer this war drags on, the more Russia will rely on the Chinese economy to sustain their war efforts.

Moscow is really being rolled into Beijings sphere of influence, along with its colonies in Central/West Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe. As it stands, given the economic blitzkrieg of the West, Russia—the 11th largest economy, just ahead of Mexico and behind Canada—is relying primarily on the power of China’s economic might to project force, and diplomatic/military ties will only strengthen in future years. America will have defeated Russia in the sense of it no longer being a great power on the global stage but a weakened and former great power taking orders from China, in effect. Not to mention after Russia greatly integrated itself into Western and Central Europe in the post-cold war period via energy expansion, this has now been completely reversed with the sanctions and destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines.

Other goals include the re-building of Western aligned Ukraine. A two-state solution will likely be what happens, as in Korea with a demilitarized zone, but where the Kremlin controlled territory is annexed into the Russian Federation, while Ukraine remains under the defacto control of the US/EU/IMF/World Bank and potentially rolled into NATO. It will be a neocolonial protectorate of the American empire even more than it already is. Ordinary Ukrainians will face the same austerity, imperial practices, etc. For Washington they will have thwarted Russian advances into Eastern Europe, containing them to the Black Sea, while likely hemming them in further from the Caucasus region with increasing US and Western influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan.