Farjana Hridy
More than three decades of military engagement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region has seen a pause recently with the intervention by the neighbouring Russia. History suggests that Nagorno-Karabakh, captured by Armenian army, was originally owned by Azerbaijan.
The friction started in July, 2020 on the international border, some 300 km (185 miles) away from Nagorno-Karabakh and the latest conflict broke out on 27 September, 2020. The conflict came to an end in November when Russia called both sides to de-escalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations without delay.
Now, the possible explanations for the border dispute between the Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 can be determined by the level of analysis. Dividing the analysis of international politics into various levels but the three levels can help suggest the appropriate type of evidence to explore.
A categorization level of analysis first used by Kenneth Waltz and later overstated by J. David Singer, offers three different sources of explanation.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The conflict has its origins in the early 20th century, though the first conflict began in 1988, when the Armenians demanded the Nagorno-Karabakh be transformed into a low intensity conflict following the end of the war, later escalating into another full-scale war in 2020.
The fighting stopped with a ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020 by which most of the territories lost by Azerbaijan during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war were returned to Azerbaijan. The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyevhas claimed that the conflict has ended.
Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan but its population consists mostly of Armenian. As the Soviet Union saw increasing tensions in its constituent republics in the 1980s, back in the 1990s, it was the Azerbaijan who were forced to leave Kelbajar when the first war ended with Armenia victories. Now it is the Armenian's turn, in a tragedy for them and a triumph for their enemies. Nagorno-Karabakh was voted to become part of Armenia sparking a war that stopped with a ceasefire in 1994.
In August 2019, Nikol Pashinyan explained the ethnic Armenians in the main city in Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert that “Artsakh is Armenian, period.”
Artsakh is the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh. These remarks made anger to Azerbaijan and recurrently condemned by President Ilham Aliyev. The war broke out on 27 September, 2020. Armenia informed Azerbaijan fired the shots first. According to Azerbaijan it was launching a “Counter-offensive” in response to Armenia aggression. In November, fighting came to an end when both sides to signed a Russian- brokered peace deal.
Azerbaijan holds on to several areas that it gained control of during the conflict and Armenia will withdraw troops from them. Almost 2,000 Russian peacekeepers will monitor the truce.
Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan because of the scale of the fighting, although the extent of this support has been disputed. Turkey’s involvement is thought to have been an attempt to extent its sphere of influence, both by increasing the standing of Azerbaijan in the conflict and by marginalizing Russia’s influence over the region.
Following the capture of Shusha, which is the most important city for the regional area, the second largest settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. There was a ceasefire agreement signed between the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, ending all hostilities in the area on 10 November, 2020.
The President of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, also agreed to end the hostilities. Approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers are deployed as peacekeeping forces along the Nagorno-Karabakh for a mandate of at least five years. The populations of Armenia is mostly Christian while Azerbaijan’s majority is Muslim. Turkey has close ties to Azerbaijan and supported with a variety of arms and troops while Russia is allied with Armenia, although it also has good relations with Azerbaijan.
Peace talks have taken place since then mediated by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group a body set up in 1992 and chaired by France, Russia and The United States.
The conflict is further complicated by geopolitics. NATO member state Turkey was the first nation to recognize Azerbaijan's independence in 1991. Former Azeri President Heydar Aliyev once described the two as “One nation with two States.” Both share a Turkish culture and populations.
The United States, Russia, France and Iran have called for a peaceful solution to Nagorno-Karabakh crisis through deliberation. Russia and France have both supported Armenia's claim that Turkey deployed Syrian militants to Nagorno-Karabakh, following its playbook in Libya. The United States played only a limited role in the diplomacy due to being busy with the Presidential election.
Azerbaijan plays an important role for Turkey for geographical and strategic reasons. For this reason, Turkey has given moral and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan at different times.
Conflicts will still remain between Azerbaijan and Armenia due to diplomacy relations. Though it is a geopolitical issue, it will be more complicated for evolving external affairs. Till now the ceasefire keeps situation steady by Russian peacekeepers. By all counts, classifying the level of analysis can occur the possible explanations and the logical deductions to explore the events.
Farjana Hridy is a Student at the Department of International Relations, University of Rajshahi.
