Chris Doyle
As various war fronts in the Middle East linger in a precarious pause — a deescalation at least — many hope that this presages a reversal away from conflict and crisis, none more so than the Palestinians. In the opposite camp is an Israeli leadership that vehemently opposed the ceasefire deals in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza and that craves conflagration.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is fueled by war and conflict. Without this, it might collapse and the prime minister personally would then find it harder to delay his day in court. The impending elections also act as an accelerant for conflict.
One front that is open for these arsonists to detonate is Jerusalem. Any and every Israeli move to further its domination of the city is guaranteed a response, as recent history shows. All the signs are there that many in Israel are ready and willing to ignite this tinderbox.
All the elements to kindle this inferno are present. At the center, as ever, will be Al-Aqsa Mosque. The firebrand National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will lead the charge. This is a man who claims: “We are the owners of the house.” Extremist Israelis have been sharing artificial intelligence-generated videos of the destruction of Al-Haram Al-Sharif. They want to build the Third Temple on its ruins.
Ben-Gvir is busy shredding the remnants of the status quo agreement, not least by leading Jewish prayer at the compound, when the agreement states that only Muslims can do so. He does this in a triumphalist fashion. Many Palestinians believe he is seeking an arrangement similar to the one at the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, with the 35-acre platform split between a mosque and a synagogue. During Ramadan this year, Muslims were not allowed to pray on the site. Israeli police, answerable to Ben-Gvir, even attacked Muslims on Eid Al-Fitr as they tried to pray outside Al-Haram Al-Sharif in the Old City.
Moreover, David Zini, the freshly appointed head of Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency in charge of the holy sites, is a self-confessed messianic Jew with close associations with the extremist Temple Mount and Israel Faithful Movement.
In Ramadan, Israel closed the major holy sites of the Old City, including Al-Aqsa and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, for a total of 40 days. Added to that, Israeli police prevented the imam of Al-Aqsa Mosque, Sheikh Ekrima Sabri, from entering for Friday prayers last week. Similarly, Latin Patriarch Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa was denied entry to the Church of the Holy Sepulcher on Palm Sunday last month.
Another facet of the ongoing Israeli assault on Palestinians is the settler seizures of properties in and around the Old City. Extremist messianic groups like Ateret Cohanim have been doing this for years but, as with all settler activity, it has been energized over the last couple of years.
Just outside the walls, the two other centers of settler aggression are Silwan and Sheikh Jarrah. Here, it is fair to call this ethnic cleansing. The Jerusalem Municipality demolished 37 homes in the Al-Bustan neighborhood of Silwan between 2023 and 2025. In total, 2,000 Palestinians in Silwan face becoming homeless.
Israel has also planned four new settlements in East Jerusalem, which will provide more than 33,500 new housing units for Israelis. Meanwhile, Palestinians face demolitions and can barely get a building permit at all.
Added to that, for the first time ever, settlers have established an outpost inside the city’s limits. They have set this up in the southeast of the city, near the village of Nu’man, which they are raiding with increased frequency.
And the circle around Jerusalem will be completed with the construction of the E1 mega-settlement to the east. The Israeli government has taken this further through the approvals process and will shortly outline the terms for the tenders. Only major international intervention will prevent this step, one that will sever Jerusalem from its natural heartland in the West Bank.
Are we about to see the Israeli election campaign triggering an even more energetic assault on Jerusalem, with the center of the attacks being Al-Aqsa? Almost certainly. Ben-Gvir will want to be seen as the champion of the issue on the far right. Netanyahu will portray himself as supportive of the principle but not the style.
The timing of these moves on Jerusalem is perfect, not just because of the elections. The dearth of visitors to Israel at this time means there are not many outsiders to witness the crimes. Global powers are understandably more interested in getting Israel to calm down in Iran and Lebanon.
The world is witnessing the consequences of unshackled extremist messianism on Palestine, including Jerusalem. The unsubtle message, endorsed by the Israeli government, is that Jerusalem is not a city for three religions and two peoples, but the exclusive domain of one people and one religion. The others are, at best, just tolerated guests.
Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech
