Greenland’s glaciers are melting faster than ever, and new research paints a grim picture for the future. By 2100, the island’s ice loss could range between 964 and 1,735 gigatons per year, depending on greenhouse gas emissions, according to studies by the University of Liège. This rapid ice melt is contributing to a rise in global sea levels that could reach up to one meter, putting millions of coastal residents at risk.
This scientific news report is based on a study that was posted on phys.org on Wednesday.
The melting of Greenland’s ice sheet is a significant climate challenge. Recent studies published in Geophysical Research Letters highlight the scale of this problem. Researchers used three regional climate models—RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM—to predict how much ice Greenland will lose by the end of the century. All models agree that the melting will accelerate, but the amount of ice lost varies based on how each model accounts for meltwater flow.
Quentin Glaude, an engineer at the University of Liège’s Montefiore Institute, explained that the models predict an ice loss of 964 to 1,735 gigatons per year, depending on which model is used. Despite the differences, Glaude emphasised the key point: “The melting of the ice is irreversible if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced.”
The models differ mainly in how they treat the movement of meltwater. Some of the water from melted snow refreezes, while the rest flows into the ocean. This complex process, influenced by factors like surface reflectivity (albedo), leads to the variations in predictions.
Currently, Greenland is responsible for 25% of global sea level rise, adding about 0.6 millimetres per year.
If the current trend continues, this could increase to as much as one meter by 2100, potentially displacing millions of people living in coastal areas.
The study, which utilised the powerful NIC5 supercomputer at the University of Liège, helps to simulate these scenarios and better understand the interactions between ice, atmosphere, and oceans. However, the researchers stress that climate models still need improvement.
A deeper understanding of water retention in snow and dynamic changes in the ice sheet’s altitude is crucial to making more accurate predictions.
The results of this study will contribute to future IPCC assessments, refining global projections of sea-level rise. It’s clear that the melting of Greenland’s ice is a wake-up call for the world. Immediate action is needed to curb global warming and protect vulnerable communities from the growing threat of sea-level rise.
