Agriculture Minister and Awami League presidium member Dr Md Abdur Razzaque said that there is no shortage of fertilizers. There is excess stock of fertilizer till next January. We are now collecting manure for the next boro season. However, some dealers and unscrupulous traders have created unrest locally by raising prices. Action is being taken against them.
The minister said these things at the workshop on presentation of the final report of the research conducted to estimate the future demand and supply of 28 crops, including rice and wheat, at the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) auditorium in the capital's Farmgate on Tuesday morning. Agriculture Secretary Md. Saidul Islam spoke as a special guest. BARC Executive Chairman Sheikh Md Bakhtiar
The minister said that due to the global crisis, the prices of some products have also increased in the country. Exploiting that, some unscrupulous traders have increased the prices for extra profit. Some traders are very clever. They are already hoarding rice knowing that Aman production will decrease. That is why the supply of rice in the market is decreasing and the price is increasing.
Regarding the price of consumer goods, the minister said, we admit that people are suffering. Those with low income are finding it difficult to run their families. However, the government is trying its best to alleviate the suffering of the people. The government is trying to reduce the price of everything quickly. But the world situation is very bad. That is why there is instability all over the world.
Agriculture Minister said, Amon is the second largest season of rice production. Aman planting is being disrupted this year due to drought and lack of rain. On the other hand, the price of fuel oil is high. Many times there is no electricity in Gramganj. Irrigation crisis has developed. In such a situation, the late planted aman fields are now bursting due to lack of irrigation. That is why I am in uncertainty about Aman. He said that the situation was discussed in the cabinet yesterday.
As I said, planting paddy after August will reduce production. Uninterrupted electricity is required for irrigation work in Aman for the next 15 days. Taking this into consideration, the Prime Minister has directed the Electricity Department to provide uninterrupted power for irrigation at night. Hopefully, they (power department) will follow this decision.
Regarding the study on the future demand and supply of 28 crops, the minister said that such a study is very necessary. If there is demand and production statistics of various crops including rice and wheat based on correct information, proper planning is necessary. It will also be possible to take proactive measures to deal with the situation. The minister gave instructions to make the study more accurate.
The study was conducted by a research team consisting of scientists (agricultural economists) from nursing institutions under the leadership of prominent agricultural economists and researchers of the country under the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC). The study is mainly done to estimate domestic demand and supply deficit/surplus of crops (food crops) in 2030 and 2050.
It is said that the list of food intake of the people of Bangladesh is slowly becoming diverse. Although the majority of calories come from grains, total calorie intake is greatly reduced. In 1990, total calorie intake from cereal was 89.6 percent, which declined to 83.0 percent in 2010 and 80.5 percent in 2021.
In 1990, the rate of calorie intake from rice alone was 80.4 percent which decreased to 70.5 percent in 2021 and will be 72.6 percent and 70.4 percent in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Calorie intake from wheat was 6.6 percent in 2010, increasing to 6.7 percent in 2030 and continuing to reach 6.8 percent in 2050.
Regarding rice production and supply, the total demand for rice for human consumption and other needs (seed, animal and fish feed, industry, waste, etc.) in 2030 will be 39.1 million tons and 42.6 million tons in 2050. If current production conditions persist, total rice supply will be 43.2 and 54.9 million tons by 2030 and 2050, respectively.
In the next few decades, the agricultural production of the country will face the challenges of adverse effects of climate change, increase in soil salinity, lack of irrigation water, etc. If adverse conditions arise, paddy production will be severely disrupted. To counter this, it is essential to popularize more productive new rice technologies at the farmer level - so that total production growth can continue. Hopefully, in the long run, new rice technologies will be available and accepted at the farmer level.
According to the research report, the amount of surplus rice will be 4.1 and 12.3 million tons in 2030 and 2050, respectively, under normal conditions. But adverse conditions (adverse weather, shortage of production materials, etc.) may result in rice shortage of 3.6 million tons in 2030 and 1.9 million tons in 2050.
