Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will try to leverage his strategic position in NATO and his rapport with Russia's Vladimir Putin when he visits Kyiv on Thursday in a bid to head off war in Ukraine.
The veteran Turkish leader hopes mediation between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can avert a Russian offensive that Washington warns could start by mid-February.
His high-profile efforts -- met with caution in Moscow -- carry huge stakes and potentially rich rewards.
Analysts believe a serious conflict in Ukraine could upend Turkey's economy and imperil Erdogan's chances of extending his rule into a third decade in elections due by mid-2023.
It could also force Ankara to pick sides between Putin -- a leader who holds several economic and military trump cards over Turkey – and traditional Western allies that have grown impatient with Erdogan's rule. Kyiv's acquisition of battle-tested Turkish drones is a particular worry for Russian-backed separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine and for the Kremlin.
But analysts think success in averting a Russian invasion could highlight Turkey's importance to the Western defence alliance and warm Erdogan's chilly relations with US President Joe Biden.
"This is an opportunity for Turkey to elevate its status and come out of the doghouse, metaphorically speaking, in NATO," Asli Aydintasbas of the European Council on Foreign Relations told AFP.
"Ankara will also use this as an opportunity to improve ties with Washington," she added.
"Erdogan has developed this unique personal relationship with Putin that is simultaneously competitive and consensual -- allowing them to support different sides in Libya, the Caucasus and Syria."
Erdogan's evolving relationship with Putin has been one of the defining features of diplomacy across southeastern Europe and the Middle East.
Their relations imploded after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border in 2015.
They improved markedly after Putin became the first head of state to call Erdogan on the night he survived a Turkish coup attempt in 2016.
