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ECB poised for big rate hike in face of record inflation


By AFP
Published : 06 Sep 2022 07:30 PM

After raising interest rates for the  first time in over a decade at their last meeting, European Central Bank  policymakers are poised to deliver another bumper hike on Thursday in a show  of determination to tame soaring inflation.

Steep increases in the price of energy in the wake of the Russian invasion of  Ukraine have heaped pressure on households and sent the pace of consumer  price rises to new highs. 

Eurozone inflation hit 9.1 percent in August, a record in the history of the  single currency and well above the two-percent rate targeted by the ECB. The "only question" for the ECB's meeting was "whether it will be a 50 or 75  basis point hike," said Carsten Brzeski, head of macro at the ING bank.

Speaking at the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium at the end of  August, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said the ECB needed to show  "determination" to tame price rises.

Under this approach, the central bank would respond "more forcefully to the  current bout of inflation, even at the risk of lower growth and higher  unemployment", she said.

- 'Only question' -

The ECB's 25-member governing council surprised with a 50-basis-point hike at  its last meeting in July, bringing an end to eight years of negative interest  rates in one fell swoop.

In her speech in the United States, Schnabel stressed the need for the people  to "trust" that the ECB will restore their purchasing power.

The Frankfurt-based institution is already playing catch up with other  central banks in the US and Britain that started raising rates harder and  faster in response to inflation.

So-called forward guidance issued by the ECB, which limited its scope for  action, has been ditched. Policymakers would now take their decisions  "meeting-by-meeting", the ECB President Christine Lagarde announced in July. With that, the door has been opened for the ECB to follow in the footsteps of  the US Federal Reserve and raise rates by a 75 basis points.

Following August's red-hot inflation numbers, the influential head of the  German central bank, Joachim Nagel, said the ECB needed a "strong rise in  interest rates in September".