Traditionally, we describe the spread of misinformation as something that "goes viral," likening it to the way infections spread. However, a new study proposes a more fitting analogy: disinformation might "go nuclear" rather than viral. This research models disinformation as a fission reaction rather than a viral infection.
The adage, “A lie can get halfway around the world while the truth is still pulling on its boots,” has long highlighted the rapid spread of misinformation. However, this saying falls short in analysing the true nature of disinformation today.
Natural processes often help us understand group behaviours, with disease models frequently used to simulate how rumours spread. However, these models fall short because they assume diseases spread passively, whereas rumours spread actively. Moreover, disease models often neglect the social impacts and risks of misinformation.
Researchers from Shandong Normal University, led by Wenrong Zheng, argue that traditional disease models inadequately represent the dynamics of rumour propagation. Their paper, published in AIP Advances, suggests that these models overlook the active nature of rumour spreaders and the broader social consequences of misinformation.
Instead, the researchers propose nuclear fission as a more accurate model. In fission, uranium atoms become excited, releasing neutrons that induce further fission reactions. This process, if uncontrolled, can lead to an exponential chain reaction, similar to how disinformation spreads uncontrollably.
In this analogy, initial online rumours are likened to neutrons, while individuals who receive and propagate these rumours are compared to uranium nuclei.
The thresholds for these individuals to become active propagators are akin to the barriers in nuclear fission. The researchers use this model to examine how the energy (or social impact) of rumours accumulates and spreads.
It's a rich and interesting new way to think about how this kind of thing works, and although it sounds quite mechanical, it arguably assigns its people/atoms more agency than in a passive epidemiological model or one based on fluid mechanics. People may be atoms in this model, but they're atoms with human qualities: How resistant is one to incoming rumors, how educated is one, how quickly does one return to a receptive state for new disinformation?
Most interestingly, the overall "heat" generated by the system can be made to represent impact on society in general. And this can act as a stand-in for telling not just whether a rumor propagated, but also whether that propagation had an effect; a fission system that is excited but never reaches a chain reaction state may be understood as a rumor that was successfully managed without being outright quashed.
Still, it's an exciting (if you will) new way of thinking about how information moves, duplicates, and indeed explodes in this highly volatile era. The nuclear fission model provides a more dynamic and precise framework for understanding the rapid and expansive nature of disinformation today.
