China’s effort to compete with Boeing and Airbus through its domestically produced C919 passenger jet is encountering serious headwinds, as U.S.-China trade tensions and export restrictions threaten to derail production and delay deliveries well below this year’s targets.
Built by the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), the C919 is designed to rival the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. Beijing promotes the jet as proof of the nation’s growing technological capability and industrial independence, even though it still relies heavily on Western-made components.
However, escalating trade frictions are straining COMAC’s ability to source crucial parts for the program, which has long been supported by large government subsidies.
“COMAC faces high risks in today’s volatile political climate,” said Max J. Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at the Conference Board. “Its supply chains remain exposed to export restrictions and retaliatory measures between the U.S. and China.”
According to Bank of America analysts, 48 of the jet’s major suppliers are from the United States—including GE, Honeywell, and Collins Aerospace—while 26 are from Europe and only 14 from China. Recent U.S. threats to tighten export controls on advanced aviation software followed Beijing’s decision to restrict exports of critical rare earth materials.
“These choke points are now being used as political leverage between governments,” Zenglein added, warning that such dependencies are likely to remain key bargaining tools.
Production Lags Behind Ambitious Targets
The C919, which completed its first commercial flight in 2023, is central to Beijing’s plans to meet massive domestic demand for new aircraft and expand internationally. Yet COMAC has delivered just seven jets so far this year, after delivering 13 in 2024, far below its plan to produce 30 aircraft by 2025, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.
Currently, only China’s three largest state-owned airlines — Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern — operate the roughly 20 C919s in service.
Dan Taylor, head of consulting at IBA, said trade tensions have “directly affected” delivery schedules. The U.S. temporarily suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines in May, only reinstating them in July, disrupting COMAC’s production timeline.
The LEAP-1C, jointly produced by GE Aerospace (U.S.) and Safran (France), requires U.S. export authorization, making the program “highly sensitive to political shifts,” Taylor said. He added that COMAC’s reliance on Western avionics and engine technology leaves it vulnerable to foreign policy decisions.
Zenglein noted that geopolitical challenges are not the only factor slowing production. COMAC is also taking a cautious approach to ensure quality and safety, while simultaneously working to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers—a process analysts say will take years.
China’s alternative engine project, the CJ-1000A, being developed by the Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC), remains in testing and is not yet ready for commercial deployment.
Limited Global Reach and Certification Challenges
Interest in the C919 has grown among foreign carriers such as AirAsia, but the aircraft cannot yet operate internationally because it lacks certification from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) — approvals that may take several more years.
“For the C919 to succeed globally, it must combine competitive economics, strong product support, and international certification,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Having just one of these isn’t enough.”
Competition Intensifies
According to Airbus, China will need nearly 9,600 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, over 80% of them single-aisle jets like the C919. Yet COMAC faces stiff competition as Airbus expands its own production in China, with a second A320 assembly line set to open in 2026.
Analysts expect COMAC to gain ground mainly within China’s domestic market and perhaps expand to nearby regions by the late 2020s, but they see little chance of it breaking the Boeing-Airbus duopoly soon.
In the meantime, the lack of international certification and continued volatility in export policy are expected to delay COMAC’s entry into Western markets and limit global growth for the C919 program, Taylor said.
