Boris Johnson has assumed the post of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom- the 14th Prime Minister appointed during the reign of the present Queen Elizabeth (the first having been Winston Churchill) and the 55th since the office of Prime Minister was initiated by the British monarchy.
A ballot carried out by about 160,000 Tory members revealed that the majority of that electorate had chosen Boris Johnson over his rival Jeremy Hunt to be the next Conservative Tory party leader to succeed Theresa May. Mr Johnson won a decisive victory gaining a 66.4% total share of the vote.
This success was achieved despite his detractors observing that he had blundered his way through a high-profile career causing offence and putting his own interests sometimes ahead of the country. Nevertheless, polls had indicated that Johnson – who had led the Leave campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum - was regarded as the clear front runner by most of the Tory party membership.
The new Conservative leader assumed his office following an audience with the Queen at Buckingham Palace. Subsequently, after a brief speech in front of 10, Downing Street where he reiterated his determination to take the UK out of the EU by the 31 October "no ifs, no buts", he announced names of different persons who would be responsible for a clutch of senior cabinet posts, including that of Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary.
Mr Johnson has given key roles to leading Brexiteers. Dominic Raab and Priti Patel have returned to government as Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary respectively. Sajid Javid has become Chancellor - as more than half of Theresa May's old cabinet, including leadership rival Jeremy Hunt, have either quit or were sacked. Other key appointments included: Stephen Barclay, who has retained his post as Brexit Secretary, Liz Truss as International Trade Secretary and Jacob Rees-Mogg as Leader of the Commons. Interestingly, BBC has noted that following his appointment, Mr Rees-Mogg, who led the pro-Brexit Tory European Research Group (ERG) has denied there had been a "Leave" takeover of the Cabinet. Instead he has underlined that "Boris is bringing the country together, the party together, through his cabinet appointments." He had been asked to respond to the fact that the number of Leave supporters in the new Cabinet had jumped to 12 from 6 in the previous Cabinet.
The Tory Party, most unfortunately is still divided over how to dig itself and the country out of the political hole of Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson also has barely the votes in Parliament to guarantee safe passage for any proposal. Departing Ministers from the previous Administration have also made it clear that they will hinder, rather than help in the evolving equation that involves leaving the EU without a formal comprehensive deal in place. Analyst Laura Kuenssberg has observed that there are policy problems everywhere in sight, whether it relates to finding a solution to the conundrums of Brexit with a reluctant EU and a divided party, or trying to address other problems at home.
Policy Analyst Larissa Brunner has in this context drawn attention to the different challenges and constraints that Boris Johnson is likely to face while tackling the next chapter of the Brexit saga and attempting to find a positive solution to this problem
There is general consensus that Johnson’s room for manoeuvre is limited by several factors.
He has started by making categorical promises but his rhetoric will have to deal with a simple fact. Both he and the Conservative Party need to realize that the country is still deeply split and both sides are becoming increasingly polarised. This has been underlined through the recent You Gov Poll. Tory Leavers have reiterated that they would be unlikely to forgive a reversal- 61% of Conservative members have indicated that they would be willing to stomach significant damage to the UK economy in order to see the withdrawal from the EU come to fruition. It would be worthwhile to remember that the Conservative Party’s membership might not be representative of its voters. The results however indicate the strength of feeling lying at the grassroots.
Such a scenario points to the fact that if the Conservatives were to go into the next general election without having delivered Brexit, they would in all likelihood be not only be severely hurt by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party but also that Johnson’s political career would come to a standstill. It may be mentioned that the recent European Parliament elections – have seen the Brexit Party come first with 30.7% of the UK vote with the Conservatives in fifth place with only 8.8%.
Johnson has promised to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and in particular the backstop for the Irish border. However, such a formula has been rejected by the EU repeatedly. The closest margin by which former Prime Minister May’s deal was defeated was 58 in March, which means that Johnson would have to sway at least 29 Members of Parliament (MPs) without being able to offer any real compromise from the EU in return. This would make things extremely difficult, especially given Labour’s fundamental opposition to a “damaging Tory Brexit”.
Added to the above constraints is the fact that the EU27 have become increasingly unwilling to grant the UK another extension, even if there is no deal in place by 31 October.
Several factors have been creating a sense of disappointment in the European Union about the way the current delay has been used by the UK. The EU leadership has been monitoring carefully the growing polarization in UK politics and society where anything short of ‘no deal’ or ‘no Brexit’ is seen as unacceptable by the two camps respectively. They are also noting that this phenomenon is leading to the inability of the UK Government and Parliament to find a positive solution.
The initial efforts made by Johnson on Brexit during his first speech to British MPs however appears to have drawn a negative response from the EU. Johnson had remarked that he was committed to "getting rid" of the Irish border backstop, which has long been a bone of contention in negotiations. The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has however observed that removing the backstop guarantee was unacceptable. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has also reiterated to Johnson that the EU believed that its position about the already-negotiated withdrawal agreement was the best one possible. However, the Commission would be available over the coming weeks if the UK wanted to hold talks.
Consequently, after the recent EU Parliamentary election, some have observed that unless a request for another extension is well-justified (e.g. through a second referendum or general election), or follows a substantive decision made by the UK which requires more time for implementation, the EU27 is unlikely to approve such a request.
It is being noted in this regard that such a scenario where Johnson is unable to gain concessions would then most likely lead to an early British general election. Such a situation would then lead to him losing all credibility. This would also certainly see a surge in support for the Brexit Party and could lead to the right-wing vote being split between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives, thus paving the way for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to bag the ruling seat – an unmitigated disaster for Johnson, the Conservative Party and its voters.
Interestingly, some political analysts have also referred to another possibility. This is being referred to as the third narrative- where Tory Party, on Johnson’s failure does not accept the risk of a general election, ousts Johnson through a vote in the British Parliament replaces him with a unity candidate, who is granted another extension by the EU27 to find a solution.
Such a scenario, at this time is however being considered as far-fetched. Followers of Johnson are already pointing out that a successful no-confidence motion would trigger a two-week period during which Johnson and his would-be successors would try to assemble a majority. Given the increasing polarization, the challenging nature of politics in Westminster and the absence of an obvious Labour leading figure that could attract moderate Conservative MPs it is hard to imagine that the current Parliament could agree quickly on a unity candidate within a few days. This would mean that Johnson would probably still be Prime Minister when the UK is due to leave the EU on 31 October. Johnson followers are also underlining that all that he would need to do in order to trigger a no-deal Brexit is to refrain from asking the EU27 for an extension of Article 50.
However, any analysis would be incomplete without referring to some other difficult global issues which the new UK PM will have to tackle. James Landale has identified the following in this regard.
The first task will be to repair UK-US relations that have been affected through comments made by the former British Ambassador Darroch. Both sides are bruised. The White House is still smarting from having been described as inept and dysfunctional by this Ambassador. Mr Johnson chose not to support him in a TV debate. The world will wait to find out as to who will be chosen to steady the ship in Washington. This has assumed importance given the evolving geo-strategic paradigm that includes the question of navigating through the troubled waters pertaining to China and Iran. The new Prime Minister will have to draw the line somewhere and that will require some nifty diplomacy, especially as the Trump White House sees China as a strategic opponent and wants all its allies to share that view.
The new Prime Minister will also need to give priority to what is described as the international rules-based order - the post-War institutions and values that placed multilateral co-operation between groups of nations ahead of the crude nationalism that has wrought so much damage in recent times. These bodies and ideas are being challenged by the populist power politics of several world leaders who consider international relations as bilateral and a zero sum game, where one country can gain only at another's expense.
The last issue that will be watched carefully by the world is how the new British Prime Minister handles the diplomatic dispute over the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests. Till now Britain has not sounded conciliatory. However, the time to take a broader strategic decision might have arrived.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.