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Amphan likely to hit today


Bangladeshpost
Published : 19 May 2020 10:12 PM | Updated : 07 Sep 2020 04:20 PM

Cyclonic storm ‘Amphan’ has become a super cyclone by consolidating more energy. This is the first super cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in the current century. Even the catastrophic cyclone Cidr of 2007 was not a super cyclone.

The meteorological department declares a cyclone to be a super cyclone if the wind speed of the cyclone is usually more than 220 kilometers per hour. Within 90 kilometers of the center of the super cyclone, the wind speed is 225 to 245 kilometers per hour.

The storm is feared to hit the country between late Tuesday night and Wednesday evening, bringing with it chances of extensive damage from high winds, heavy rainfall and tidal surge, according to the latest special weather bulletin of Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

The threat of such a cyclone is looming at the time Bangladesh is struggling to cope with the Coronavirus epidemic. The full potential of disaster management is fighting to control it. In this situation, it is a big challenge for the authorities to evacuate people in coastal areas maintaining social distancing and hygiene with the limited resources.

State Minister for Disaster Management and Relief Dr Md Enamur Rahman said the government has taken necessary preparations to face cyclone ‘Amphan.’ The district administrations have already been directed to take necessary steps to increase the number of shelters so that people could maintain safe distance among them. It has been instructed to make alternative arrangements if there is no electricity during the disaster.

Officials said preparations has made in some 140 upazilas of the country. There are more than 1,400 unions in these upazilas. There are around 10,410 shelter centers where people have already been moved. The government will provide them necessary food and other essentials. Besides around 1,800 medical teams are working for medical support of them in the areas.

State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Nasrul Hamid said “If the cyclone 'Amphan' hits, the normal power supply system may be disrupted. We are observing on the movement of 'Amphan'. In the meantime, REB, WZPDCL and other distribution companies have been instructed in this regard. Immediate uninterrupted power supply will be ensured by speeding up post-cyclone maintenance and repair activities.”

“We have two floating LNG terminals in the deep sea, from where we supply gas all over the country through pipeline. If the cyclone hits, our gas supply may also be disrupted for a time being. However, we have all kinds of pre-preparedness so that we can quickly restart everything after any disaster such as Amphan,” he added.

Earlier, Cyclone Cidr hit Bangladesh in 2006, devastating the southwestern coast of Bangladesh, killing more than 2,000 people. Where Cidr originated, Ampan also originated in the same area of the Bay of Bengal near the Andaman Islands.

A decade ago, Cidr's storm swept over the Sundarbans, protecting vast coastal areas. The Sundarbans was also a shield in the case of ‘Bulbuls’ (another devastating storm). However, Sundarbans may also protect the country from Amphan, experts expressed their hopes.

AKM Saiful Islam, a professor and climate expert at the Institute of Water and Flood Management of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, said that Cyclone Amphan has been gaining strength in the Bay of Bengal for more than a week. So far, looking at its speed-nature, it seems that it can hit Bangladesh as a very strong storm.

According to a joint report on Amphan by the Department of Agricultural and the Meteorological Department, Amphan may affect in 51 districts of the country. However, the 24 coastal districts are at the high risk of crop and public damage due to the storm.

According to the forecast of the Meteorological Department of India, it could cross Bangladesh through Shyamnagar in Satkhira, Bangladesh. At this time the wind speed can be up to 180-240 km per hour. Through Satkhira, it can cross the territory of Bangladesh through Khulna, Jessore, Pabna and Rangpur. However, it is not possible to say with certainty that the cyclone will pass through this path.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, this time the target has been set to produce 2 crore 4 lakh tonns of boro. Of this, 65 percent has been cut. Besides, there are about 8 lakh tonnes of mango and 10 lakh tonnes of jackfruit in the field. There are also plenty of watermelons, melons, litchis and other seasonal fruits. All of it is in a mature state. As a result, agronomists think that there is a risk of extensive damage if they are not harvested from the trees quickly.

The coastal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Jhalokati, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barisal, Laxmipur, Chandpur and the surrounding islands and chars of these districts will be under Danger Signal 7. On the other hand, the coastal districts of Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and the islands and chars near these districts will be under the danger signal number 6.

According to the Meteorological Department, the coastal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Jhalokati, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barisal, Laxmipur, Chandpur, Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong and the adjacent islands and char areas of these districts are affected by Amphan. It may be flooded by tidal waves higher than 4-5 feet.

When the cyclone passes through Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Jhalokati, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barisal, Laxmipur, Chandpur, Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong districts then it may shower the areas with storm at a speed of 140 to 180 km per hour.

Mohammad Abdul Wazed, former director general of the Disaster Management Department, said maintaining social distance and adhering to hygiene rules will be a major challenge in cyclone shelters this time.

"It will be a little harder to stay at a safe distance. Because, there is a possibility of overcrowding. If the Coronavirus is infected or spread at shelter centers, the number of infections in that area will increase in a large number."

Wazed also said sending relief goods and rehabilitating people in the areas will also bring new challenges.The aftermath of the cyclone can be very dangerous, he feared.

First super cyclone since 1999: Leading global storm tracker AccuWeather has described Amphan as the first super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since 1999, fearing the storm to unleash extreme impact across Bangladeshi and northeastern Indian coastlines.

The US-based weather forecasting agency said the cyclone was drifting north-northeastward over the open Bay of Bengal early Tuesday while “favorable environmental conditions have allowed for (its) significant strengthening”.

How it is named: Amphan means strong or powerful. This is a Thai word. Thai meteorologists have given this name. Meteorologists from South and Southeast Asian countries along the Bay of Bengal compiled a list of 64 cyclones. Ampan was the last on that list. The storm that will then form in the sea will be fixed from the new list.