Israel's sweeping campaign of airstrikes aims to do more than destroy Iran's nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to shatter the foundations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's government and leave it near collapse, Israeli, Western and regional officials said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into fundamental concessions on permanently abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militant groups across the region, the sources said.
He also wants to leave Khamenei's government debilitated. The campaign is about "exhausting the regime's ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion," one senior regional official said.
Iran's Islamic government faces an existential crisis unlike anything since the 1979 Revolution - not even the brutal 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, the Middle East's most advanced military, can strike anywhere in Iran with drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad operatives, and cyberwarfare technology.
In recent days, Israel has broadened its targets to include government institutions like the police and state television headquarters in Tehran. Netanyahu's government is planning for at least two weeks of intense airstrikes, according to four government and diplomatic sources, though the pace depends on how long it takes to eliminate Iran's missile stockpiles and launch capacity.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy and advisor to several U.S. administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and may be inching toward the negotiating table after the strikes eliminated much of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed top security figures.
"I do think the regime feels vulnerable," said Ross, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he insisted Israel's primary aim is to cripple Iran's nuclear and missile programs, Ross conceded that if the regime were to fall as a consequence, "Israel wouldn't be sorry."
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's belligerent tone in recent days, he would likely accept if Tehran can offer a credible path to a deal, Ross said.
But, after Tehran offered no concessions during six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., Washington will need firm assurances from Iran that its goals, including the permanent abandonment of enrichment, will be met before it will support a ceasefire.
"I think the cost to them is going to be high,” he said.
For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting the 86-year-old Khamenei retreat without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. Strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival and he may choose all-out conflict, they added.
After Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei promised in a televised speech that any U.S. military intervention in Iran would be met with "irreparable damage".
In recent days, Netanyahu has also overtly raised the prospect of regime change, promising Iranians "the day of liberation is coming".
Regional governments are fearful the situation could spiral out of control, pushing Iran - an ethnically diverse nation of 90 million people that straddles the Middle East and Asia - into chaos or unleashing a conflict that could spill across its borders.
"You can't reshape the region through belligerent force," said Anwar Gargash, advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates. "You might resolve some issues, but it will create others."
Iran Isolated
Iran's decades-old playbook - waging war from the shadows via its proxies - collapsed under an Israeli offensive following the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Its regional Axis of Resistance crumbled, with Hamas crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon defeated, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ousted by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen on the defensive.
Russia and China - seen as allies of Tehran – have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions.
"Iran isn't just facing Israel," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington D.C. "It’s facing off the United States and European powers."
And while Sunni Arab Gulf states have publicly condemned Israel's strikes, privately leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – longtime U.S. allies - may welcome a weakening of their Shi'ite rival, whose proxies have targeted vital Gulf infrastructure, including oil facilities, analysts say.
Militarily, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the skies over Iran, having largely destroyed its air defences. Much of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic weapons is believed to have been damaged by Israeli strikes, and 400-or-so it has fired have mostly been destroyed by Israel's multi-layered aerial defence system.
But with the Iranian opposition fragmented and no signs of divisions within the powerful Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which has nearly 250,000 fighters including its Basij militia volunteers, there is scant prospect Iran’s ruling elite will collapse easily.
There have been no major protests on the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians profess anger towards Israel for the attacks. Without a ground invasion or domestic uprising, regime change in Iran is a distant prospect, the officials said.
On Tuesday, Trump issued a veiled threat to Khamenei, declaring that U.S. intelligence knows his location and had no intention to kill him "for now".
Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September plunged the Lebanese group into disarray but regional officials and observers warned that killing the ageing Khamenei would not have the same impact.
"Real power now resides with his son, Mojtaba, and the IRGC, which is deeply embedded despite the loss of key commanders," one regional source said. "They remain the regime’s spine."
Killing Khamenei, a religious leader to millions of Shi'ites, could cause a major backlash.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East during Trump’s first term, said that if the Israeli campaign does foment regime change in Iran, it could result – at least initially – in a more hardline administration.
"What is likely to follow a theocratic Iranian government is not democracy but Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–istan," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think-tank. "Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows."
Israel Needs America
The next move belongs to Trump, Ross said, who must decide whether to intervene militarily to try to force Iran’s hand.
Israeli officials acknowledge that to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities – which are hidden in secure locations deep underground like the fortified Fordo
Israel's airstrikes aim to break foundations of Khamenei's rule in Iran
Israel's sweeping campaign of airstrikes aims to do more than destroy Iran's nuclear centrifuges and missile capabilities. It seeks to shatter the foundations of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's government and leave it near collapse, Israeli, Western and regional officials said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran weakened enough to be forced into fundamental concessions on permanently abandoning its nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile program and its support for militant groups across the region, the sources said.
He also wants to leave Khamenei's government debilitated. The campaign is about "exhausting the regime's ability to project power and maintain internal cohesion," one senior regional official said.
Iran's Islamic government faces an existential crisis unlike anything since the 1979 Revolution - not even the brutal 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war posed such a direct threat to clerical rule. Israel, the Middle East's most advanced military, can strike anywhere in Iran with drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, assassinations by Mossad operatives, and cyberwarfare technology.
In recent days, Israel has broadened its targets to include government institutions like the police and state television headquarters in Tehran. Netanyahu's government is planning for at least two weeks of intense airstrikes, according to four government and diplomatic sources, though the pace depends on how long it takes to eliminate Iran's missile stockpiles and launch capacity.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy and advisor to several U.S. administrations, believes Iran is feeling the pressure and may be inching toward the negotiating table after the strikes eliminated much of Khamenei's inner circle, damaged nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, and killed top security figures.
"I do think the regime feels vulnerable," said Ross, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he insisted Israel's primary aim is to cripple Iran's nuclear and missile programs, Ross conceded that if the regime were to fall as a consequence, "Israel wouldn't be sorry."
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's belligerent tone in recent days, he would likely accept if Tehran can offer a credible path to a deal, Ross said.
But, after Tehran offered no concessions during six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., Washington will need firm assurances from Iran that its goals, including the permanent abandonment of enrichment, will be met before it will support a ceasefire.
"I think the cost to them is going to be high,” he said.
For Iran, there is one key calculation: letting the 86-year-old Khamenei retreat without humiliation, two Iranian sources said. Strip him of dignity or the prospect of survival and he may choose all-out conflict, they added.
After Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" on social media on Tuesday, Khamenei promised in a televised speech that any U.S. military intervention in Iran would be met with "irreparable damage".
In recent days, Netanyahu has also overtly raised the prospect of regime change, promising Iranians "the day of liberation is coming".
Regional governments are fearful the situation could spiral out of control, pushing Iran - an ethnically diverse nation of 90 million people that straddles the Middle East and Asia - into chaos or unleashing a conflict that could spill across its borders.
"You can't reshape the region through belligerent force," said Anwar Gargash, advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates. "You might resolve some issues, but it will create others."
Iran Isolated
Iran's decades-old playbook - waging war from the shadows via its proxies - collapsed under an Israeli offensive following the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. Its regional Axis of Resistance crumbled, with Hamas crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon defeated, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ousted by rebels, and the Houthi militia in Yemen on the defensive.
Russia and China - seen as allies of Tehran – have remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated in the face of Western powers determined to end its regional influence and nuclear ambitions.
"Iran isn't just facing Israel," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington D.C. "It’s facing off the United States and European powers."
And while Sunni Arab Gulf states have publicly condemned Israel's strikes, privately leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – longtime U.S. allies - may welcome a weakening of their Shi'ite rival, whose proxies have targeted vital Gulf infrastructure, including oil facilities, analysts say.
Militarily, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the skies over Iran, having largely destroyed its air defences. Much of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic weapons is believed to have been damaged by Israeli strikes, and 400-or-so it has fired have mostly been destroyed by Israel's multi-layered aerial defence system.
But with the Iranian opposition fragmented and no signs of divisions within the powerful Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), which has nearly 250,000 fighters including its Basij militia volunteers, there is scant prospect Iran’s ruling elite will collapse easily.
There have been no major protests on the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians profess anger towards Israel for the attacks. Without a ground invasion or domestic uprising, regime change in Iran is a distant prospect, the officials said.
On Tuesday, Trump issued a veiled threat to Khamenei, declaring that U.S. intelligence knows his location and had no intention to kill him "for now".
Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September plunged the Lebanese group into disarray but regional officials and observers warned that killing the ageing Khamenei would not have the same impact.
"Real power now resides with his son, Mojtaba, and the IRGC, which is deeply embedded despite the loss of key commanders," one regional source said. "They remain the regime’s spine."
Killing Khamenei, a religious leader to millions of Shi'ites, could cause a major backlash.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East during Trump’s first term, said that if the Israeli campaign does foment regime change in Iran, it could result – at least initially – in a more hardline administration.
"What is likely to follow a theocratic Iranian government is not democracy but Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–istan," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think-tank. "Israel might find itself in a perpetual, ongoing, and far more intense war that is no longer in the shadows."
Israel Needs America
The next move belongs to Trump, Ross said, who must decide whether to intervene militarily to try to force Iran’s hand.
Israeli officials acknowledge that to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities – which are hidden in secure locations deep underground like the fortified Fordo
