Foreign policy experts and security analysts reiterated on Tuesday that America or Europe will not engage in any war against Russia, even after Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic(LPR).
They also opined that neither the USA nor Europe will impose any large-scale sanction against Russia to avoid Russia and China deepening their alliance.
They blamed the Joe Biden administration’s trick to make the military industrial complex benefit by creating a war like situation.
Experts also narrated that Joe Biden admiration is trying to divert the attentions of the American voters from damaged economy and other domestic issues by engaging in Ukraine
Talking to Bangladesh Post,Professor Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, former chairman of the International Relations Department of the University of Dhaka said, Russia has given a clear message to America to give up its plan of NATO expansion by giving the recognition of DPR and LPR.
Russia wants to give a tough signal against any possible NATO expansion in East Europe.
When NATO was established, there were only twelve members. Now NATO has around thirty members, he said.
America wants NATO to exist in Europe. Because without NATO engagement in Europe, their power and influence will vanish, Professor Imtiaz Ahmed, a globally renowned crisis expert opined.
There are 119 military bases in Germany. If the necessities of NATO is decreased, the necessities of keeping these huge numbers of US military bases will also be decreased. This is why America will want to continue NATO engagement in any way, he further added.
Professor Imtiaz reiterated that he thinks America will not engage in any war against Russia over the issue of Ukraine. Because the American economy is not in such a good position.
He however said, as Joe Biden has a midterm election, he may need such an aggressive foreign policy.
Responding to the US sanctions against Russia, he said, the US will impose some sanctions for sure. But they will not impose any large-scale sanction against Russia. Because it has some dangers for the USA itself. If the US imposes extreme level sanctions against Russia, there is a chance of China and Russia having closer relations.
We all must remember that the current China and Russia are not the same as twenty years ago, or ten years ago, he stated.
He said, there will be some sanctions, but there will be no war. America will keep the situation in such a position so that its military industrial complex gets benefits. The USA has already sent weapons there.
Since Ukraine is still not a NATO member, both Europe and USA will not finally engage in any war against Russia following the Ukraine issue.
Professor Imtiaz said, it is clear that Russia will never accept Ukraine as a NATO member. As Ukraine is a neighboring state to Russia, the Russian military may do many things without direct military intervention. A big number of Russian speaking people are living in Ukraine. The Russian army will create many situations since the Ukraine president has become desperate to join NATO.
As America will never accept the existence of the Russian army in South America, Russia will also never tolerate the presence of the US military near its border, he stated.
A leading security analyst, Major General (rtd) Abdur Rashid, a former veteran officer of Bangladesh Army, said since a major portion of European Union’s energy demand is being fulfilled by Russia, EU will not finally impose any extreme level sanctions against Russia.
If oil imports from Russia to the EU are restricted, the EU will also face a massive energy crisis. This is why, even after Russia’s decision to extend recognition to DPR and LPR, the EU will continue its efforts to solve the Ukraine crisis through diplomacy and dialogue.
About the possibility of immediate NATO membership of Ukraine in this latest context, Rashid said, the EU is not united at this moment. They are divided. It is not possible to provide Ukraine NATO membership, if the EU is not united on the vital issue.
About the possible next counter step of America against Russia, the leading security expert said, Joe Biden has a midterm election. He needs to keep the pride and honor of America by resisting Russia.
If he can successfully contain the Russian increasing influence in East Europe, there will be a good opportunity to seek votes of the American people, he said.
Regarding the economic implications if any war occurs between USA and Russia, Major Rashid said , currently the global economic order is centered around the USA. Both China and Russia will try to change the current global economic order, he opined.